TrendForce has released a new research report targeting the price trends of DRAM and NAND flash memory for the second quarter of 2024. Both will continue the growth trend of the past several months, but the quarterly increase in DRAM contract prices will shrink to 3-8%, while NAND flash will remain strong, with contract prices rising about 13-18%.
Currently, DRAM suppliers’ inventories have decreased but have not yet returned to healthy levels. With the gradual improvement in the loss situation, the capacity utilization rate has been further increased. The problem is that the overall market demand outlook for this year is not good, and since the fourth quarter of last year, suppliers have significantly increased prices, causing the momentum for customers to replenish inventories to weaken gradually.
| Product | 1Q24 (E) | 2Q24 (F) |
|---|---|---|
| PC DRAM | up 15~20% (DDR4 & DDR5: up 15~20%) | up 3~8% (DDR4 & DDR5: up 3~8%) |
| Server DRAM | up 15~20% (DDR4: up ~20%; DDR5: up 15~20%) | up 3~8% (DDR4: up 5~10%; DDR5: up 3~8%) |
| Mobile DRAM | up 18~23% | up 3~8% |
| Graphics DRAM | up 13~18% | up 3~8% |
| Consumer DRAM | up 15~20% (DDR3: up 8~13%; DDR4: up 10~15%) | up 3~8% |
| Total DRAM | up ~20% | up 3~8% |
The situation varies across different submarkets: In PC DRAM, with the trend gradually shifting towards DDR5, the purchase volume in the second quarter rises. As the manufacturers significantly transition to advanced processes for producing DDR5, cost optimization has significantly improved manufacturers’ profits. In Server DRAM, although inventory purchases have increased, the actual penetration rate by the first quarter of this year was not as expected, meaning the demand has not been fully realized. In Mobile DRAM, buyer inventory is at a healthy level, with no significant signs of a rebound in demand, leading to a moderation in the upward trend. In Graphics DRAM, the purchasing side’s stocking momentum continues, and as manufacturers shift production capacity to HBM products, the production planning for GDDR products is relatively conservative, which supports the price increase. In Consumer DRAM, except for AI, the demand is weak, and the increase will converge.
| Product | 1Q24 (E) | 2Q24 (F) |
|---|---|---|
| eMMC UFS | up 25~30% | up 10~15% |
| Enterprise SSD | up 23~28% | up 20~25% |
| Client SSD | up 23~28% | up 10~15% |
| 3D NAND Wafers (TLC & QLC) | up 23~28% | up 5~10% |
| Total NAND Flash | up 23~28% | up 13~18% |
Besides Kioxia and Western Digital, which increased their capacity utilization rate in the first quarter of this year, other suppliers generally maintain a low production strategy. Although there is a slight decline in NAND flash purchase volume in the second quarter, due to the effects of suppliers’ inventory reduction and production cuts, the upward trend remains relatively strong. Among the submarkets of eMMC, UFS, Enterprise SSD, Client SSD, and NAND Flash Wafer, Enterprise SSD has the highest increase. Benefiting from the rising demand in the cloud service industries in North America and China, the purchase volume has increased, with Enterprise SSD contract prices increasing by 20-25% quarterly, a rise much higher than other products.
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