The path forward for the semiconductor industry is “harmony.” The market is paramount—where market trends and demand lie, so do opportunities. Innovation is the right path—there is no eternal leader, only innovation remains a constant. Talent is the key—whoever holds core talent will gain the upper hand in competition,” said Ju Long, SEMI Global Vice President and President of China, at the SEMICON China 2025 press conference.
The backdrop to this statement is the unprecedented global transformation currently underway, with three major trends significantly impacting the semiconductor industry. First, drastic shifts in the global geopolitical landscape are driving deep restructuring of the industrial supply chain. Second, substantial changes in global trade and economic structures, including tariffs, are influencing semiconductor development. Third, AI is reshaping everything—including thinking, strategy, and market positioning. In response to these changes, Ju Long believes that only by mastering the market, innovation, and talent can companies align with the times and sustain growth momentum.
At the same time, challenges and opportunities coexist. The semiconductor industry has been undergoing an adjustment period in recent years, with a revenue decline of 11% in 2023, reaching $530 billion, but expected to grow by about 20% in 2024. SEMI forecasts that the industry’s revenue will see double-digit growth in 2025, potentially surpassing $1 trillion by 2030, showcasing vast growth potential.
On the road to a trillion-dollar market, semiconductor manufacturing capacity is expanding globally to keep pace with rising chip demand, driving growth in the semiconductor equipment market. According to SEMI data, AI/HPC investment is becoming a key force behind this growth. Advanced logic chips and memory investments hold a significant share of total equipment investments, with AI/HPC-related spending expected to account for 33% of the equipment market in 2024, rising to 40% in 2025, and further increasing to 48% by 2028—nearly half of the total investment in equipment.
The restructuring of the semiconductor supply chain is also reflected in regional differences in equipment investment. Ju Long noted, “Between 2023 and 2024, global equipment investment fluctuated, reaching an estimated $122.8 billion in 2024. In 2025, most regions—except China—are expected to see moderate growth, bringing total global investment to $121.5 billion, with further growth to $139.4 billion in 2026.”
Regarding China’s semiconductor equipment investment forecast for 2025 and beyond, Ju Long explained, “China’s share of global investment will experience periodic fluctuations, reflecting both the dynamic shifts in global semiconductor equipment investment patterns and a continued rational approach to spending in mainland China.”
The semiconductor manufacturing process is complex, broadly divided into three major stages: wafer manufacturing, front-end processes, and back-end processes. Wafer manufacturing includes steps such as crystal pulling, outer diameter grinding, slicing, chamfering, grinding, chemical mechanical polishing (CMP), and more. The front-end process involves diffusion, thin-film deposition, photolithography, etching, ion implantation, CMP, metallization, inspection, and cleaning. The back-end process includes back grinding, wafer dicing, die attach, wire bonding, molding, lead trimming/forming, and final testing (FT).
Each step in these three stages requires multiple types of semiconductor equipment. For example, in front-end diffusion, oxidation furnaces, RTP (rapid thermal processing) systems, and laser annealing equipment are used. The thin-film deposition process involves a variety of tools, including CVD (chemical vapor deposition), PVD (physical vapor deposition), RTP, ALD (atomic layer deposition), and epitaxial furnaces.
According to SEMI, growth in the wafer fab equipment (WFE) market is driven by technological investments and capacity expansion. The total WFE market is expected to reach $101 billion in 2024, rising to $108 billion in 2025, and further increasing by 14% to $122.6 billion in 2026.
Regarding specific market segments, Ju Long revealed: “In 2024, spending in foundry and logic chip sectors remains stable. In 2025, driven by leading-edge technology investments, growth is projected at 3%, with a 15% increase expected in 2026.”
“In 2024, DRAM-related equipment spending will surge by 35% to $19 billion, with a further 10% increase to $21 billion in 2025 due to capacity expansion. Meanwhile, NAND equipment sales are sluggish in 2024 but are projected to expand by 48% in 2025, reaching $14 billion,” Ju Long added.
The testing equipment market is expected to grow by 14% in 2024, reaching $7.1 billion, with 15% and 19% growth anticipated in 2025 and 2026, respectively. SoC testing demand remains weak in the automotive and industrial sectors but is soaring in the HPC/AI sector. Storage testing is rebounding strongly in 2024, with strategic investments in high-end memory chips likely to continue.
The packaging equipment market is forecasted to rebound by 23% in 2024 to $4.9 billion, with growth of 16% and 23% in 2025 and 2026, respectively. Driven by AI chip demand, investments in advanced packaging technologies such as 2.5D/3D packaging and hybrid bonding are on the rise.
Overall, as next-generation technologies and emerging market opportunities drive the industry forward, AI is opening new application possibilities. Meanwhile, booming sectors such as new energy vehicles and IoT are gaining momentum, with heterogeneous integration and advanced packaging technologies drawing significant attention.
However, the industry also faces numerous challenges. Geopolitical factors are reshaping supply chains, sustainability and energy efficiency requirements must be met, and talent shortages remain a pressing issue.
In navigating this era of transformation, beyond adhering to the philosophy of “harmony in progress,” how can the industry discover even better paths forward?
On March 26, SEMICON/FPD China 2025 will open at the Shanghai New International Expo Centre (N1-N5, E6-7, T0-T3). As the world’s largest and most influential semiconductor event covering the latest technology trends, it may provide the answers.
According to Ju Long, SEMICON China 2025 will expand by one exhibition hall compared to last year, covering 100,000 square meters, with 1,400 exhibitors and 5,000 booths, encompassing the entire semiconductor supply chain—from chip design, manufacturing, and packaging to equipment, materials, photovoltaics, and displays.
Additionally, the event will feature over 20 concurrent conferences and activities, covering topics such as innovation investment, automotive chips, smart manufacturing, advanced materials, heterogeneous integration (advanced packaging), and silicon-based displays.
Notably, amid the current global emphasis on sustainability, SEMI is actively advancing several initiatives. For example, it has launched a comprehensive sustainability program focused on energy efficiency, carbon reduction, and achieving carbon neutrality.
In terms of concrete actions, SEMI’s global reforestation project has yielded significant results, with 123,533 trees planted worldwide—60,500 in China alone, accounting for approximately 50% of the total. This equates to 68.9 hectares of forest, which, over a 40-year lifecycle, is expected to absorb 3,819 metric tons of CO₂, making a substantial contribution to carbon reduction.
Furthermore, during SEMICON China 2025, SEMI will host the SCC Sustainability & ESG Summit, addressing key issues such as low-carbon environmental protection, energy efficiency, and ESG practices. The summit will explore strategies to combat climate change and contribute to the semiconductor industry’s green development.
Source: SEMICON China
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