After 4 years since its debut, the ‘purebred’ Hongmeng is finally about to arrive.
Recently, there’s news that Huawei’s HarmonyOS will no longer be compatible with Android starting from 2024.
Regarding this, Huawei responded that there are currently no plans to use HarmonyOS on overseas phones, and overseas consumers can continue using Android applications on Huawei phones equipped with the EMUI version. As for the domestic market, Huawei has not given a direct response.
Before this, the Hongmeng system’s underlying structure adopted the Android Open Source Project (AOSP) code that is both compatible with and open-source for Android. This means developers had minimal migration costs during development.
During the Harmony Developers Conference in August this year, Huawei quietly showcased the developer version of Hongmeng Harmony Next. In this version, the AOSP code has been completely removed, supporting only the Hongmeng kernel and applications of the Hongmeng system.
Following hindrances in the overseas market, Huawei is shifting its focus to the domestic market. Huawei’s HarmonyOS will take the lead independently from the Android system in the domestic market, marking Huawei’s determination to break away from dependency on the Android ecosystem. However, whether it can firmly establish itself as the third-largest operating system globally after Apple’s iOS and Android, and ‘survive with quality,’ remains an unknown.
01
Chapter One: Returning Home
The prominence of the Hongmeng system is itself a consequence of the overseas market’s blockade and suppression. With the shrinking overseas market, Huawei’s move seems to aim at further solidifying the domestic market by temporarily relinquishing its focus on the overseas market.
Following the impact of U.S. sanctions, Huawei’s terminal business was severely affected, almost collapsing in the overseas market. In an attempt to save itself, Huawei decisively shifted its focus to the domestic market while simultaneously promoting the localization of the industrial chain.
The U.S. chip blockade meant Huawei couldn’t launch new 5G phones through the existing industrial chain. Additionally, the termination of Huawei’s collaboration with Google’s Android meant that Huawei phones overseas practically became ‘bricks’ in users’ hands, unable to use basic services and apps normally, inevitably reducing the phone’s usability and hindering Huawei’s prospects in the overseas market.
Amidst the crisis, Huawei, on the one hand, promoted the Hongmeng operating system, which had been quietly developed for seven years, to replace the EMUI operating system based on Android. On the other hand, it vigorously promoted the localization layout of the chip industrial chain.
The explosive market response to the Huawei Mate 60 Pro in August this year, selling out within a minute, signifies not only Huawei’s brand appeal but also the capability of Huawei to produce ‘5G’ phones relying solely on the domestic industrial chain.
According to research by the China Galaxy Securities Institute, Huawei Mate 60 Pro only uses Toshiba’s storage and some non-domestic CMOS chips. The overall localization rate is estimated to be around 90%, higher than the 72% localization rate of the Mate 50.
As the Hongmeng system moves towards independence, Huawei’s domestication of smartphones will reach a new level, enhancing its ability to resist technological sanctions. However, it’s worth noting that apart from Apple’s iOS, the overseas mobile market is predominantly dominated by the Android system. While the incompatibility of Hongmeng with Android might assert a firm stance against Android, it might also face significant challenges in the overseas market in the coming years.
As previously confirmed by Huawei, the Mate 60 series will not be sold in overseas markets, which might indicate certain issues. Despite Huawei’s claim of limited production capacity, primarily focusing on the mainland market, introducing a ‘purely domestic’ hardware and software smartphone to gain favor among overseas users seems increasingly difficult.
02
Chapter Two: From 2% to 16%, or Back to 0?
For the survival of Huawei’s HarmonyOS, it must attract users, engage developers to enhance the ecosystem, and, in turn, draw in more users—a crucial cycle where user scale is paramount.
Many previously developed systems, such as Blackberry, MeeGo, Windows Mobile, and Windows Phone, faded away due to challenging initial stages and poor ecosystem, swiftly marginalized in the operating system market dominated by the Matthew Effect.
Earlier predictions from Strategy Analytics anticipated that by 2027, HarmonyOS’ global market share would plummet from 2% to 0.
Even in Huawei’s ‘far-leading’ domestic market, it’s still a ‘duopoly’ between Android and Apple. According to Counterpoint data in the first quarter of this year, in China, Huawei’s HarmonyOS acquired an 8% market share, while Android and Apple’s iOS held 72% and 20% respectively.
Perhaps the recovery of Huawei’s terminal business will elevate HarmonyOS’ market share. During Huawei’s Autumn Full-Scene New Product Launch on September 25th, Yu Chengdong stated that since the launch of the Huawei Mate 60 series pioneer plan, it has been highly favored by consumers and is currently being urgently produced. HarmonyOS has surpassed 700 million users, with HarmonyOS 4 having upgraded around 60 million devices, adding 1.2 million users daily.
Having 60 million ‘far-leading’ high-end users should sufficiently attract numerous enterprises and developers to join the HarmonyOS ecosystem.
In November alone, companies like Meituan, Bilibili, Qunar, Sina, and DingTalk announced cooperation with Huawei and initiated research into the HarmonyOS application ecosystem. Other undisclosed firms, such as Baidu and WPS, have also quietly advertised the need for HarmonyOS system developers.
Furthermore, mobile phone manufacturers and supply chain companies with low market shares have also announced integration into the HarmonyOS system. For instance, in November, the Coolpad mobile team announced integrating the open-source OpenHarmony system (Note: OpenHarmony is the basis for the HarmonyOS) into the Ziguang Zhanrui T606 processor.
Apart from these objective reasons, the dual influence of geopolitical tensions and the technology war between major nations has enhanced the industry’s focus on supply chain security and preference for domestic ecosystems. Additionally, with the development of the Internet of Things (IoT), the bulky Android system is no longer suitable, a significant reason why numerous Android phone manufacturers are transitioning to self-developed operating systems.
Presently, HarmonyOS has progressed to version 4.0, encompassing various fields, including smart cars, wearable devices, Huawei Smart TVs, and more. Its modular microkernel structure enables adaptation to various terminal devices, facilitating modular characteristics for broader application scenarios.
However, the challenges are apparent; Huawei’s aggressive independent deadline for HarmonyOS, requiring industry-wide ecological collaboration, makes swiftly assembling relevant developers extremely difficult. Some industry insiders estimate that a skilled Android engineer would need about 3 months to transition to HarmonyOS.
If HarmonyOS can achieve independence and smoothly penetrate the domestic market before 2025, the ‘horror story’ of a market share of zero by 2027 might not come true.
For Huawei, the 16% market share is the ‘life or death line’ for the HarmonyOS. To achieve this goal, Huawei needs to expand the sales of terminal products as much as possible.
From the current information available, Huawei’s HarmonyOS targets Apple’s iOS rather than the chaotic software and hardware ecosystem of Android. Moreover, as Huawei competes with other phone brands, it’s challenging to convince leading phone manufacturers to join.
In essence, Huawei can only rely on its smartphones and other terminal products like the ‘1+8+N’ to expand its user base. However, amidst a sluggish consumer electronics market, limited Huawei chip production capacity, and unfavorable overseas expansion conditions, the difficulty is evident.
For example, analysts project that this year’s total Huawei phone shipments might reach 40 to 50 million units, a fraction of Huawei’s peak period shipments of 240 million phones.
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Chapter Three: Huawei—An Overly Focused Competitor
Riding on the wind of a ‘far-leading’ resurgence, Huawei has emerged as an excessively focused competitor, posing a challenge for the entire domestic mobile phone industry. For numerous brands aiming to elevate their brand status, this isn’t welcome news.
In contrast to Huawei’s rapid progress in the domestic market, competitors have taken a more cautious approach.
For instance, Xiaomi unveiled the all-new operating system, Xiaomi Surge OS, in October this year. Although it integrates the self-developed Vela system, fundamentally, it’s a transitional approach compatible with Android AOSP.
Vivo’s BlueOS, while taking a different path, arrives at a similar destination.
At the developer conference held in November, Vivo’s Vice President Zhou Xiang explicitly stated: that BlueOS is not compatible with Android and won’t be in the future, nor will it operate on other platforms. However, Vivo clarified that BlueOS and OriginOS are not replacements; OriginOS will continue to be used, while BlueOS will primarily serve as a lightweight operating system suitable for mid-to-low-end devices. Initially, it will be tested on smartwatches and cautiously expanded to phones.
None of the competitors have disclosed a clear timetable for rolling out an Android-incompatible operating system. In other words, competitors are not yet willing to abandon the Android camp.
The primary reason lies in the fact that while Huawei is solely focused on the domestic market, other domestic phone brands also need to consider the overseas market.
According to Canalys statistics, in the third quarter of this year, Samsung and Apple held the top positions globally with market shares of 20% and 17%, respectively. Xiaomi, with a market share of 14%, secured the third position, followed by OPPO and Transsion. Vivo dropped out of the top five. Among these, Xiaomi’s overseas sales accounted for a significant 78%, while OPPO and Vivo’s overseas market sales also surpassed half.
The intense competition in both domestic and international phone markets has consumed significant efforts from phone manufacturers. Amidst the overarching theme of ‘cost reduction and efficiency enhancement,’ it’s challenging in the short term to invest substantial manpower and resources into developing and promoting a completely independent closed operating system. Moreover, Android still holds dominion overseas, making it almost impossible to achieve a swift overthrow by combining software ecosystems in the short term.
Huawei’s HarmonyOS offers a different solution, perhaps initiating from the domestic market first, establishing a strong foothold and market presence, breaking through with software richness, and ultimately capturing foreign user groups. While it might be premature now, it’s not entirely impossible.
However, this path poses a fatal flaw for other phone manufacturers—the occupancy of the high-end market. A significant reason for internet companies to develop and adapt software is the high-quality user base and market appeal that Huawei possesses.
Thus, only by stabilizing their presence in the high-end market and enhancing brand recognition can other manufacturers hope to break out. However, during the years when Huawei was absent in the high-end market, brands like OPPO, Vivo, and Xiaomi failed to seize the opportunity. Now that Huawei is back, the challenge for them will likely be even more daunting.
Source from ID: F-Jinjiao by the author of 东篱
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