Currently, the global competition in advanced chip manufacturing processes is rapidly advancing toward the 2-nanometer and sub-2-nanometer nodes. Recently, Samsung unveiled the world’s first Exynos 2600 processor based on the 2nm Gate-All-Around (GAA) process. Meanwhile, Intel’s 18A (approximately 1.8nm) process and TSMC’s 2nm process have also entered the mass production stage.
Against this backdrop, many are curious and hopeful about the development path of the chip industry over the next 15 to 20 years. Recently, the Korean Semiconductor Engineers Society released the “2026 Semiconductor Technology Roadmap,” providing a comprehensive forecast of silicon-based chip technology for the next 15 years, which offers significant reference value.
According to the roadmap, by 2040, semiconductor process nodes are expected to break through to 0.2 nanometers, officially entering the angstrom era. This progression will mark a major leap in the semiconductor industry from the nanoscale to the sub-nanoscale. However, achieving this goal from the current technological level will require overcoming numerous significant technical bottlenecks, including innovations in new transistor architectures, breakthroughs in materials science, and the extreme scaling of manufacturing equipment.
The roadmap emphasizes that the path to achieving sub-1nm processes is fraught with challenges, mainly involving intensified quantum effects, signal integrity degradation, and thermal management difficulties. To address these obstacles, the 0.2nm process projected for 2040 is expected to adopt Complementary Field-Effect Transistors (CFETs) as the core transistor structure, combined with monolithic 3D integration design to enhance transistor density and performance efficiency. This architectural transformation aims to extend the evolution of Moore’s Law while driving chips toward higher integration and lower power consumption.
In addition, the roadmap includes long-term forecasts for several key technologies. In the field of memory, the number of stacked layers in NAND flash is expected to increase significantly from over 300 layers currently to 2,000 layers, which will greatly improve storage density and support larger-capacity solid-state drives and data center applications.
Currently, SK Hynix has launched 321-layer QLC NAND technology, and the exponential increase in future layer counts will depend on advanced etching technologies and material innovations. In the area of AI semiconductors, computing power is expected to reach extremely high levels.
AI chips used for training are projected to achieve up to 1,000 trillion operations per second (1000 TOPS), while those used for inference could reach 100 trillion operations per second (100 TOPS). This forecast reflects the explosive growth in demand for high-performance computing in artificial intelligence, which will drive chip design toward specialized accelerators and high-efficiency architectures.
In summary, the roadmap released by the Korean Semiconductor Engineers Society not only outlines a clear technological evolution path from the nanometer to the angstrom era, but also profoundly reveals the core logic of future chip industry development: under the challenge of physical limits, innovation is shifting from mere size scaling to systematic breakthroughs in architecture, materials, and integration technologies.
The forecast data for memory and AI computing chips point to a broader future — a dual revolution of data density and processing performance will jointly support the demanding needs of massive information storage and real-time computing in the intelligent era. However, the quantum effects, thermal management, and manufacturing precision challenges behind this blueprint also serve as a warning that the road to 0.2nm will be far from smooth, requiring sustained investment from the global industry in basic research, engineering processes, and supply chain collaboration.
In the next 15–20 years, the story of the chip industry will not just be about refining numerical nodes, but a comprehensive technological competition that integrates physics, materials, design, and manufacturing. Those who can first achieve systematic breakthroughs in these key areas will likely define the foundation of the next generation of information technology.
Disclaimer:
- This channel does not make any representations or warranties regarding the availability, accuracy, timeliness, effectiveness, or completeness of any information posted. It hereby disclaims any liability or consequences arising from the use of the information.
- This channel is non-commercial and non-profit. The re-posted content does not signify endorsement of its views or responsibility for its authenticity. It does not intend to constitute any other guidance. This channel is not liable for any inaccuracies or errors in the re-posted or published information, directly or indirectly.
- Some data, materials, text, images, etc., used in this channel are sourced from the internet, and all reposts are duly credited to their sources. If you discover any work that infringes on your intellectual property rights or personal legal interests, please contact us, and we will promptly modify or remove it.
