Market analysis firm TrendForce published a report yesterday indicating that the HBM memory market will continue to flourish in 2025, with both capacity and market share set to increase further.
The report states that in 2023, the bit output share of HBM within the overall DRAM memory market was only 2%, but it is expected to grow to 5% this year and exceed the 10% threshold next year.
In terms of market share, HBM accounted for 8% of the overall DRAM market last year. This year it will reach 21%, and by 2025 it is expected to exceed 30%.
| HBM | 2023 | 2024 (E) | 2025 (F) |
|---|---|---|---|
| HBM Proportion / Total Bit Output of DRAM | 2% | 5% | over 10% |
| HBM Proportion / Total DRAM Output Value | 8% | 21% | over 30% |
According to TrendForce data, the price gap between HBM and traditional DDR5 memory is currently about fivefold, while the yield of the HBM3e TSV process is only 40-60%.
The report states that supply and demand parties have begun preliminary price negotiations for 2025 HBM orders in the second quarter of this year. Additionally, as previously reported by IT Home, this year’s HBM production capacity of Micron and SK Hynix has already sold out.
Limited by the overall DRAM capacity, HBM memory suppliers have preliminarily raised prices by 5-10% to cover the HBM2e, HBM3, and HBM3e categories.
| Category | HBM1 | HBM2 | HBM2E | HBM3 | HBM3E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BW (GB/s) | 128 | 307 | 460 | 819 | 1000 |
| Stack Height (Layer) | 4 | 4/8 | 4/8 | 8/12 | 8/12 |
| Capacity (GB) | 1 | 4/8 | 8/16 | 16/24 | 24/36 |
| I/O (Gbps) | 1 | 2.4 | 3.6 | 6.4 | 8.0 |
| JEDEC Release Date | Jan. 2016 | Dec. 2018 | Feb. 2020 | Jan. 2022 | Aug. 2023 |
| Channels | 8 | 8 | 12 | 16 | 16 |
| Storage number per channel | 128MB | 1GB | 1GB | 1.5GB | TBD |
| Process node | 29nm | 21nm | 10nm | 5nm | 10nm |
| Effective bit width | 1024-bit | 1024-bit | 1024-bit | 1024-bit | 1024-bit |
| Voltage | 1.2 | 1.2 | 1.2 | 1.1 | TBD |
| Transfer Speed | 1GT/sec/pin | 2GT/sec/pin | 3.2GT/sec/pin 3.65GT/sec/pin | 6.4GT/sec/pin 6.4GT/s | 8GT/s |
| Total channel width | 1024 bits (8-Hi stack) | 1024 bits (8-Hi stack) | 1024 bits (8-Hi stack) | 1024 bits (8-Hi stack) | 1024 bits (8-Hi stack) |
Currently, HBM buyers remain highly confident in the future of AI and are willing to accept further price increases. On the supplier side, the future prices of HBM memory will be affected by reliability and supply capabilities, potentially leading to price differences and impacting profitability.
Looking ahead to 2025, the focus of HBM memory will shift towards 12-layer stacking and the HBM3e category, driving an increase in the average stack capacity of HBM chips. Demand for HBM memory has already grown by nearly 200% in 2024 and is expected to double again next year.
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