Just one quarter into 2022, the semiconductor market has been hit by a series of disasters, including quanta's rare order cuts due to declining DEMAND for PCS, Apple's reported decline in iPhone 13, iPhone SE, and Airpods due to weak demand, Recent reports from foreign investors in the U.S. have also warned that global semiconductor inventories need to be revised, and LJMC may also face a cut in orders from customers.
It is true that the global semiconductor economy has been somewhat affected by the resurgence of COVID-19 and the war between Ukraine and Russia. Still, the paradigm for assessing semiconductor inventories has shifted.
In the face of comments from foreign investors in the United States, LJMC Chairman Huang Chongren said that it is not possible to analyze the market demand for a single product in a diversified society. For example, Apple does not only produce mobile phones. If foreign investors still analyze the market demand for computers and mobile phones, it is a backward idea.
I mainly identify with this statement. In recent years, the global digital economy has begun from the bus to the new shunt, besides computers and mobile phones, there are many new directions of the semiconductor that can make people dream, like yuan universe related AR/VR/MR, server hosting, new energy vehicles, and intelligent self-drive, etc., but the most industry analysts still with computer and mobile phone production as the evaluation standards of the semiconductor market, It’s not fair.
For example, electric cars and semiconductors for intelligent self-driving cars, which have recently gained market recognition for their sustainable energy efficiency, have been overlooked.
Semiconductors and chips are inseparable, and automotive chips can be divided into three categories according to their functions: computing chips, power conversion chips, and sensing chips. Computing chips are commonly used in engines and chassis, especially for autonomous driving awareness; Good power conversion chip can reduce the loss of electric energy; Sensor chips are used in autopilot radar and tire pressure detection.
A traditional car needs about 550 chips, and electric cars and those with self-driving functions need an average of 1,200 semiconductors to control the size and function of the car, from self-driving to tire pressure monitoring. Therefore, the semiconductor market driven by intelligent cars can not be underestimated.
In addition, semiconductor-related servers, amazon, and Google saw the most significant growth in server shipments in 2021, with a total volume of shipments increasing by 30%. JPMorgan revised down its global PC shipments, while the server market is expected to grow 7 percent for the full year, according to data from Amazon and Facebook, as the overall economy affects demand, the Economic Daily News reported.
As the COVID-19 pandemic has affected the global economy, many companies and governments are going digital and transforming. For example, to build a new life circle of the meta-universe, from the platform end to the application end, all kinds of links need the data processing and storage function of the server; Blockchain, whether public, private, or federated, also needs server support. In the near future, quantum computers will be much faster, and servers will of course be indispensable components.
Indeed, to be fair, the current production of AR/VR/MR chips related to the meta-universe is still unable to catch up with hundreds of millions of smartphones in the last year. Many industry analysts also estimate that Apple must wait until 2025 to ship 100 million AR devices, which must be a lot of variables!
However, in the past, when the technology product options were not so diverse, it was acceptable to use mobile phones and computers as the benchmark for semiconductor market estimation. However, with the recent news of mobile phones and computers cutting orders disrupting the semiconductor market, I think the benchmark for semiconductor market evaluation has quietly shifted.
In the past, when the technology options were less diverse, it was acceptable to use mobile phones and computers as the benchmark for semiconductor market estimation. But with the recent news of mobile phones and computers cutting orders disrupting the semiconductor market, I think the benchmark for semiconductor market evaluation has quietly shifted.
Perhaps in the future, industry analysts can also take into account “new semiconductor demand”, such as semiconductors for cars and servers. After all, it is smarter and more comprehensive to assess the rise and fall of the semiconductor market not by looking at the decline of traditional computer and mobile phone chips, but by considering the increase in the number of chips needed for new industries.
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